政府投资对民间投资的挤入与挤出效应分析——以黑龙江省为例

An Empirical Investigation on the Crowding out Effect and Crowding in Effect of Local Government Investment upon Private Investment——Take Heilongjiang province for example

运用时间序列数据进行实证检验,以黑龙江省为例,建立VAR模型分析黑龙江省地方政府投资对私人投资是否存在挤出效应。通过分析黑龙江省地方政府投资对固定资产投资以及民间投资的影响,进一步分析地方政府投资在经济发展中所起的作用。根据黑龙江省1978年—2006年的数据测定分析结果表明,目前黑龙江地方政府投资还没有对私人投资造成明显的挤出效应。

This paper studies whether the local government investment of Heilongjiang province has crowding-out effect to private investment,using of time series data and choosing the method of VAR model.According to the data between 1978 to 2006,which results show that local government investment of Heilongjiang province on private investment has not caused crowding-out effect.