泥石流空间预判技术

Technique for spatial pre-estimation of debris flow

提出了泥石流空间预判技术的概念.基于地质资料和遥感资料分析,以地质构造控制论和环境因素控制论为理论核心,运用多因素叠加预判法,在不考虑勘探手段的情况下,筛选与泥石流活动关系密切的相关因素作为评价因子,确定预判的范围和精度,建立Ⅰ,Ⅱ,Ⅲ三级泥石流空间预判模型.其中:Ⅰ,Ⅱ级预判以地质构造控制论为理论基础,适用于大范围评估;Ⅲ级预判以环境因素控制论为理论基础,适用于小范围评估.三级评估的结果均可分为5个等级.

The concept of space pre-estimation of debris flow was put forward, based on geologic structure cybernetics and environmental factors. Ⅰ, Ⅱ, Ⅲ three-tier models for debris flow pre-estimation were established without any means of exploration, but according to much geological data and remote sensing data, the single factor superposition method was used and the related factors were chosen as an evaluation factor. Ⅰ and Ⅱ models were based on geologic structure cybernetics and Ⅲ model was based on the cybernetics of environmental factors. The results of the evaluation could be divided into five grades.