不同背景场条件下AREM模式预报效果评估分析

Evaluation and Analysis of AREM Prediction under Different Background Fields

分析了2005年6月1日至11月31日以T213分析场为背景场和以AVN(Aviation)分析场为背景场条件下AREM(Advanced Regional Eta Model)模式降水预报效果,并对两分析场计算日平均偏差和均方根标准差,分析偏差分布、总结两者之间的差别。结果表明:AREM模式在其他条件完全相同,分别使用两种分析场做背景场条件下,出现了降水预报效果的较明显差异,总体上以AVN分析场为背景场条件下AREM模式的预报效果好于以T213分析场为背景场;对两分析场进行统计学对比,发现两分析场在高度、温度和相对湿度3个要素上存在较大的差异,两分析场在新疆北侧的西伯利亚、内蒙古东北部及俄罗斯东南部区域、孟加拉湾、青藏高原等地区存在较大偏差,而这些地区的天气系统对我国天气有重要的影响。

The rainfall prediction with AREM （Advanced Regional Eta Model） under the background of T213 analysis and AVN （Aviation） analysis fileds from 1 June to 31 November 2005 is analyzed. The daily average deviation and root mean-square standard deviation of the two analysis fields are computed, and the distribution of the deviation is analyzed. The results show that keeping the other conditions the same, there is obvious difference in the rainfall prediction of AREM between two background fields; as a whole, the prediction is better under the background of AVN analysis field than under T213 analysis field; contrasting the two analysis fields statistically, there were obvious differences in height, temperature and relative humidity, and big deviation over Siberia north of Xinjiang, the northeastern part of Mongolia and the southeast part of Russia, the Bay of Bengal, and the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. The weather systems in those areas have important effect on the weather in China.