利用NRSM区域模式做温州区域短期气候预测

Short-Range Climate Prediction with Nested Regional Spectral Model for Wenzhou

为了探索地市气象台站短期气候预测的客观预报工具，引进美围NMC（National Meteorological Center）的NRSM（Nested Regional Spectral Model）短期气候模式，利用该模式对台风重灾区浙江省温州市台汛期（7～9月）的短期气候要素——月、季降水量、月平均温度进行预测。将上述要素的模式预报值以及多年平均值进行对比分析，模式对极端降水天气预报效果好，模式预报7月特涝准确率较高，对涝的预测能力较强。；对8、9月的特旱预报准确率较高，对旱的预测能力强；模式对温州各地7～9月台汛期旱涝趋势准确率可达50％～70％；对月平均温度的定量预测能力表现出色；可以将模式进行业务试应用。

The NRSM （Nested Regional Spectral Model） of the NMC （National Meteorological Center） is used to conduct the short-range climate prediction for Wenzhou during typhoon seasons （July, August, and September） from 1986 to 1995. The monthly and seasonal precipitation and monthly mean temperature during typhoon seasons in Wenzhou are predicted. Comparison is made between the simulated and the observed results, and it is found that the model performed well in extreme precipitation, July severe flood, and August and September severe drought prediction; the prediction accuracies of the model for drought/ flood tendency are 50% to 70% during the typhoon season; and the capability of monthly mean temperature prediction is satisfactory. The model can be put to operational use.