基于改进的MGM模型的我国耕地面积预测研究

Study on the Prediction of Cultivated Land Area in China Based on the Improved MGM Model

根据《中国农业发展报告》和2007年《国土资源公报》关于耕地面积的最新统计数据,通过建立改进的MGM模型,对我国耕地面积进行了实证分析和预测研究。结果表明,到2008年我国耕地面积将减至1.213 7亿hm2,按该趋势发展,到2012年我国耕地面积1.2亿hm2存量底线将有失守的危险。指出应切实加大耕地保护力度。

According to the latest data in China Agricultural Development Report and Bulletin of China Land and Resources in 2007, the empirical analysis and prediction study were made on the cultivated land areu in China through establishing the improved MGM model. The results showed that the cultivated land area in China in 2008 would reduce to 121.370 million h㎡. According to the developmental trend, the cultivated land area in 2012 would be less than 120 million h㎡. It was pointed out that the cultivated land protection should be strengthened.