区域农业水资源可持续利用模糊综合评价

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation on the Sustainable Utilization of Regional Agricultural Water Resources

以东北区为例,为客观评价区域农业水资源可持续利用(SUAWR)水平,确定了新的模糊综合评价模式:构建综合评价指标体系,应用层次分析法确定指标综合权值,构造标准化特征函数对各指标实际值进行标准化处理,改进相对隶属度函数,以等级中值的相对隶属度为参照标准,采用加权幂平均原则,进行SUAWR水平模糊综合评价。评价表明,海明距离法和欧式距离法、按标准化值直接加权合成法的SUAWR排序结果拟合良好,综合排序结果符合实际状况。SUAWR水平较差的评价单元分布在水资源贫乏的西部及辽河中下游区,或社会经济需水量大而水资源相对紧张的中部平原区。相关分析表明,制约SUAWR区域差异的主要指标有公顷均水资源量、蒸发量与降水量差值、干旱指数、水田比例、单方灌溉水水稻产量、农田供需水平衡率、农业人均农业用水量。

Taking Northeast China as an example, a new fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was confirmed in order to evalnate the sustainable utilization of agricultural water resourees （SUAWR） objectively. The comprehensive evaluation index system was constructed. The analytic hierarchy method was used to confirm the integrated weight of indices. The standardized characteristic function was constructed to make the standardization treatments on the actual value of each index. And the relative membership degree function was improved. With the relative membership degree of grade median as reference standards, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was made on SUAWR level by using the average principles of weighted power. The evaluation results showed that SUAWR sorting results by using Hamming distance method, Euclidean distance method and weighting synthesis method based on standardized value were fit well. And the integrated sorting results were accordant with the actual situations. The evaluation units with worse SUAWR level were located in the western and middle and lower reaches of Lian River with poor water resources or middle plain area with greater water demand for the social and economic development and short water resources. The correlation analysis showed that the main restricting indices of SUAWR regional difference included water resources quantity per hectare, the difference value between evaporation amount and precipitation amount, drought index, paddy field proportion, rice yield per cubic meter irrigation water, water supply-demand balance ratio of farmland and per capita agricultural water consumption.