通过规划审核和综合决策完善轨道交通客流预测

Improving Rail Transit Passenger Forecasting through Plan Auditing & Comprehensive Decision Making

客流预测结果是轨道交通发展建设的重要依据。首先分析了深圳市近期轨道交通发展的特点,并总结其对轨道交通客流成长和预测方面的启示。针对轨道交通客流预测普遍存在的技术问题,提出利用"客流预测规划审核"和"预测结果综合决策"的办法改进客流预测。前者探讨了重要基础数据的核实、轨道交通出行特征分析、敏感性分析等内容。后者包括确定系统规模的综合决策以及确定车站设计规模和运营组织方案的综合决策。最后提出客流预测发展机制的一些建议。

Passenger forecasting plays an important role in the construction and development of rail transit systems. This paper first analyzes characteristics of shortterm development of rail transit in Shenzhen, and further summarizes their implications to future development and volumes forecasting for rail transit proj ects. While addressing technical issues generally seen in passen ger volumes forecasting, the paper presents two approaches to improving rail transit passenger forecasting, i.e., passenger fore cast and plan auditing, and comprehensive decision making based on forecasting results. The former taps into such issues as critical data verification, rail transit travel characteristics and sensitivity analyses; while the latter focuses on comprehensive decision making on rail transit system （including stations） scale, as well as operation scenarios. Finally, the paper offers sugges tions on development mechanism for rail transit passenger fore casting