以欧元区为例的最优货币区内生化研究

An Empirical Research on the Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Area——Based on Economic Development in the Eruo Zone

文章从最优货币区理论契入,回顾最优货币区理论演变以及最优货币区内生化的最新发展历程,在此基础上对欧元区经济发展的实践进行了实证研究,通过运用ADF单位根检验,来检测欧元区国家经济发展是否趋同以期从实践上验证最优货币区理论内生化这一理论,实证结果并不支持最优货币区内生性理论。文章还对新加入欧盟的非欧元区成员国将来加入欧元区后的状况进行简单预测,认为欧元区国家经济的趋同将需要很长的一段时间。

Having started from the Optimum Currency Area theory and reviewed the evolution of the Optimum Currency Area theories and the development of the endogeneity of the Optimum Cun-ency Area, this the paper does empirical analyses of the economic practice of Euro zone. It tests the convergence of the economic development of the member states in the Euro zone through ADF test, in order to verify the endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area. The empirical outcome does not support the endogeneity theory. Moreover, the paper forecasts the situation for the new EU member states to join in Euro zone, believing that the convergence inside the Euro zone will take a long time.