区域城镇化水平预测一种方法的讨论——基于晋城市的个案

Several discussion on Region Urbanization Level Forecast——A case study on Jincheng city

城镇化水平预测是城镇体系规划的核心内容之一,城镇化水平预测方法是历来研究重点之一.论文立足于寻求数据的连续性和准确性,对影响城镇化水平预测的历史数据的选择、数据时间段选取,预测空间单元界定和参照区域单元选取等进行充分讨论.综合运用时间回归和空间回归方法,将非农人口的连续性和2000年我国"五普"城镇人口的准确性结合起来,实现城镇化水平的预测的准确性.最后,基于晋城市个案分析做出尝试.

The forecast of urbanization level is one of the core contents. The urbanization level forecast method is one of the most significant segments. Based on the continuity and veracity, this article sufficiently discusses historical data, length of data period, the space unit forecasted and the region unit of historical data. Based on the discussion, synthesizing time regression and spatial regression, this article combines the continuity of non-agricultural population and the veracity of the urban population data in the fifth population census in 2000 in China, and establishes a new method to achieve the veracity in urbanization level forecasting. At last, a case study on Jincheng city is carried out.