PERT法评估特大桥梁工程施工进度风险

Evaluation of Construction Progress Risk Using PERT Method in Huge Bridge Project

在桥梁工程建设中面临着大而多的风险,尤其是跨海湾特大桥的建设更为突出,因此特大桥梁工程项目风险管理也越来越受到工程建设领域的关注。针对特大桥梁工程施工过程中受各种风险的影响导致施工工序持续时间具有随机性的特点,本文提出了采用逻辑关系确定、活动持续时间不确定的网络计划PERT法来进行施工进度风险评估。该方法主要是假定工序持续时间的不确定性具有β分布的特性,通过计算其数学期望值使之转化为确定网络计划来求得其工期风险,并考虑线路间的相互影响。本文以甬台温高速公路复线工程中一特大桥为研究对象,阐述了PERT法在特大桥梁工程施工进度风险评估中的应用,希望能对该工程以及类似工程的实施提供一些参考。

The great and multitudinous risks are confronted in the bridge construction, especially in the construction of cross-bay bridge, so more and more attention is paid to the risk management of the huge bridge project in the field of construction. According to the randomicity of the constructing procedure caused by a variety of risks in the construction of huge bridge, the thesis poses the adoption of the method of network program PERT which is possessed of the certainty of logic relationship and the uncertainty of movement duration to estimate the risks in the construction progress. Such method assumes that the uncertainty of the procedure duration has the characteristic of β distributing and transfers it into the certain network program to estimate constructing risk via counting its mathematic expectancy in terms of the influence between roads. The thesis states the application of PERT to estimate the risk in the construction process by a case study of one huge bridge along the Yong-Tai-Weng Expressway. It is expected to provide some references to this project as well as the similar project.