影响冬小麦产量的气象要素定量评价模型

Quantitative Evaluating Model for Meteorological Factor Effects on Winter Wheat Yield

利用冬小麦生育期间的逐日气象资料、冬小麦产量和生理气象指标资料,计算了冬小麦全生育期标准化日照时数、有效积温和标准化降水量;在进行通径分析的基础上,分别计算了日照、温度和降水对冬小麦气象产量的贡献率;运用积分回归分析,得到了影响冬小麦产量的逐旬日照时数、有效积温和降水量的影响系数,构建了冬小麦产量气象要素影响定量评价模型。实例应用表明,利用通径分析和积分回归原理计算的气象要素影响系数,能够准确反映冬小麦生长发育过程与气象条件的关系;建立的冬小麦产量气象要素影响定量评价模型能够定量评价全生育期各气象要素对冬小麦产量的影响,具有较高的科学性和准确性;提出的气象要素定量评价技术路线,为开展气象要素定量评价业务服务奠定了很好的技术基础。

The normalized sunshine hours, effective accumulative temperature and normalized precipitation are calculated by use of daily meteorological data, yields of winter wheat and physiological meteorological indicators of winter wheat of its growth period. Based on path analysis, the contribution ratios of sunshine, temperature and precipitation to winter wheat meteorological yield are calculated, respectively. The influence coefficients, which reflect the impact of dekadly sunshine hours, effective accumulative temperature and normalized precipitation on winter wheat yield, are obtained by means of integration regression method, thus a quantitative estimation model for meteorological factors＇ influences on winter wheat yield is established. The example analysis indicates that the above influence coefficients of meteorological factors, calculated by use of the path analysis and the integral regression, can precisely reflect the relationship between the growth course of winter wheat and the meteorological conditions. The evaluation model can quantitatively estimate the effects of meteorological factors on the yield of winter wheat in the entire growth period, so that it is of higher scientificity and accuracy. The technique lines of the quantitative evaluating of meteorological factors provides a favorable technique foundation for developing related operational service.