2006-2007年江苏省流行性感冒流行特征分析

Analysis of the feature of influenza epidemic in Jiangsu province,2006 to 2007

目的了解2006-2007年江苏省流行性感冒(流感)流行特征。方法收集国家级监测哨点医院的流感样病例(ILI)资料、全省病原学分离检测结果以及流感或ILI暴发疫情资料进行分析。结果2006年和2007年(计1-52周)2年度,徐州、南京、无锡、丹阳4个监测点共登记ILI分别为94231、102099例,流感样病例百分比(ILI%)分别为4.67%、4.87%,两构成比差异有统计学意义(χ2=85.18,P=0.0000),其中徐州、南京、无锡、丹阳市的ILI%分别为7.18%、5.06%、3.66%、2.00%。2006-2007年流感或ILI暴发中,采集标本进行实验室检测的为56起(94.92%),其中流感病毒阳性52起(92.86%)。实验室确诊流感暴发疫情年度分布显示:2006年主要以B型(94.12%)为主,2007年主要以A型H3N2亚型(66.67%)和B型(33.33%)为主,根据月份分布显示:所有暴发疫情均分布在1-5月和9-12月,其中1-3月是流行高峰,共45起(86.54%),病原学显示2006年1-2月全省发生大范围的B型(Victoria系)流感暴发,2007年1月发生较大规模的H3N2亚型流感暴发。结论2006-2007年江苏省流感活动相对稳定,但仍存在局部暴发,哨点医院的ILI和暴发疫情的病毒分离均显示A型H3N2亚型、B型Victoria系为优势毒株。流感流行季节的变化趋势及其预警机制的建立需要进一步探讨。

Objective To investigate the feature of influenza epidemic in Jiangsu province from 2006 to 2007. Methods The analysis were conducted on the data of the cases of influenza-like illness （ILI） collected from the sentinel hospitals of national level, the virus isolation results and the data of influenza or ILI outbreaks in the province. Results In 2006 and in 2007 （week 1-52）, a total of 94 231 and 102 099 ILI cases were registered in four sentinel hospitals in Xuzhou, Nanjing, Wuxi and Danyang, accounting for 4.67% and 4.87%, respectively, the difference of which was with significance statistically （X^2= 85.18, P=0.0000）.The proportion of ILI in Xuzhou, Nanjing, Wuxi, and Danyang were 7,18%, 5.06%, 3.66%, and 2.00%, respectively. As for the influenza or ILI outbreaks during 2006 and 2007, samples were collected for laboratory testing for 56 outbreaks （94.92%）, with the positive rate of 92.86% （52 outbreaks）. B influenza virus was predominated in 2006 （94.12%）, while H3N2 （66.67%） and B （33.33%） viruses predominated in 2007. The outbreaks distributed from January to May and from September to December with the peaks between January and March （45 outbreaks, 86.54%）. Large scale outbreak of B influenza （Victoria lineage） occurred in January and February, 2006 and large scale outbreak of H3N2 influenza occurred in January, 2007. Conclusion Influenza activity in Jiangsu from 2006 to 2007 was stable, but with local outbreaks. Virus isolation results of the cases from sentinel hospitals and during the outbreaks indicated that H3N2 and B/ Victoria lineage viruses predominated. Therefore, further research is needed on the changes of influenza activity and the development of the warning mechanisms.