基于AHP和模糊综合评判的TBM施工风险评估

Risk assessment of TBM construction for tunnels based on AHP and fuzzy synthetic evaluation

岩石隧洞建设中面临很大和众多的风险,利用TBM施工的深埋长隧洞受多种不确定因素影响,具有随机性和模糊性,目前的研究方法难以对其进行准确定量分析。通过深入分析影响TBM施工的风险因素,建立了TBM施工风险综合评价指标体系。基于风险影响因素的层次性,提出了TBM施工风险二级模糊综合评判计算模型,并利用层次分析法(AHP)确定各级因素权重,利用模糊集法确定隶属函数,划分了风险接受等级。以南水北调西线工程深埋长隧洞TBM施工为例,应用二级模糊综合评判计算模型对该工程TBM施工风险进行分析,计算结果表明,该方法是合理性实用的。其理论、方法、思路和结论可供同类工程借鉴。

Great and numerous risks will be encountered in the construction of rock tunnel; the tunnel boring machine（TBM） construction for deep-buried long tunnel is affected by various uncertain factors with random and fuzzy behaviors, which can＇t be quantitatively analyzed by current methods. A synthetic evaluation index system for TBM construction risk is established by analyzing the factors that influence TBM construction. Based on the hierarchy of these factors, a model of two-stage fuzzy synthetic evaluation is proposed; and analytic hierarchy process（AHP） is used to determine the weight of each stage factor; fuzzy sets method is used to determine membership function; risk ranking is also classified. The proposed method is applied to the TBM construction risk in South-North Water Transfer Project; the simulation results show that the method is reasonable. The analytical approach and the results will be practical and helpful to other similar projects.