房地产市场中的羊群行为及其对商品房交易量的影响

Herding in Real Estate Market and Its Impact on the Quantity of Commercial Housing

以我国35个大中城市的商品房市场的量价悖论为研究对象,以Hwang Song和Mark Salmon的羊群行为测度方法对我国房地产市场进行的实证研究表明,我国房地产市场中存在严重的羊群行为,它是促进我国商品房销售量、价格飙升以及现阶段房市交易低迷的重要因素之一。从影响羊群行为的决定因素分析中发现,削弱我国房地产市场中羊群行为的主要措施在于稳定消费者对房地产市场的整体预期,具体方法包括稳定消费者通货膨胀预期、降低商品房的空置率、控制消费者价格指数过度上涨。

By adopting Hwang Song and Mark Salmon＇s Herding Behavior, this paper makes a detailed survey of the real estate markets in 35 Chinese cities, finding that there is serious herding behavior in the Chinese real estate market. Results indicate that herding behavior is one of the critical factors that accelerate the rise of the price of commercial housing and the decrease of sales. After an analysis of the determinant factors of herding behavior, it points out that the main measurement to weaken the herding behavior is to stabilize the overall anticipation of the real estate market, which includes means of stabilizing consumers＇ anticipation of the inflation, decreasing the rate of unused commercial housing, suppressing the over-increase of the consumer price index.