摘要
中国经济在2003～2007年间年增长率都超过10%,这与前期文献对中国增长后劲乏力的悲观预测似不一致。本文使用并延展Holz(2006)的资本存量序列,通过要素收入份额可变的增长核算法,重新测算了我国改革开放以来的TFP增长率。研究发现,世纪之交前后的TFP增长率并不像其他文献所报告的那样接近于零甚至为负值,其原因在于前期的文献采用了不合适的投资流量指标,高估了资本存量的增长率,进而低估了TFP增长率。这一结果将有助于理解中国经济增长的可持续性。
The Chinese economy grew at an annual rate of over 10% from 2003- 2007, which seems to be at odds with the pessimistic views previously held about China＇s growth prospect. In this paper we recalculate China＇s TFP growth since 1978 and extend it to 2007, using a growth accounting framework with variable factor income shares along with an extended estimate for China＇s capital stock based on Holz （2006）. It is found that China＇s TFP growth was higher than what previous literature has indicated. The reason for the underestimation in the previous literature is that the growth of capital stock has been overestimated. Our results provide some evidence for the sustainability of China＇s economic growth.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第3期3-15,共13页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
关键词
全要素生产率
增长核算
资本存量
Total Factor Productivity
Growth Accounting
Capital Stock
