KLR金融危机预警模型研究——对现阶段新兴市场国家金融危机的实证检验

A Study on KLR Financial Crises Warning Model

美国次贷危机的逐步恶化引发了全球金融市场的持续动荡,并逐渐演化为全球性的金融危机。受此冲击以及内在高通胀压力的影响,部分新兴市场国家金融体系的脆弱性逐渐凸显。本文利用国际主流的金融危机预警模型KLR模型对新兴市场国家现阶段的金融危机做了实证检验,结果显示KLR模型的预警绩效较好,可以用于进一步的预警研究。在此基础上对未来一段时间的金融危机进行了预警分析,认为现阶段新兴市场国家尚未爆发全面的金融危机,但部分国家已出现经济、金融形势恶化的趋势,其自身体系的脆弱性导致未来发生危机的概率较高。

The gradual deterioration of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis led to the durative turbulence in global financial market, and become a global financial crisis. By the impact of crises, as well as internal high inflation pressure, the financial system gradually highlights the fragility in some emerging markets. This paper studied the financial crises early warning system on emerging markets using the KLR modeh It showed a good performance, and can be used for further warning. On this basis, this paper made a forecast, and pointed out that although the emerging markets have not yet broke out comprehensive financial crisis, but some countries are suffering economic, financial deterioration at this stage. And the fragility of financial system will lead to a higher probability of crises in future.