中国的产业结构变动、多样化与失业

The Impact of Structural Change and Diversity of China’s Industry on Unemployment

文章利用1997～2006年的中国省级面板数据,检验了产业结构变动和多样化对失业率的影响。研究结果显示,工业部门的结构变动导致失业率上升,并与失业率波动显著正相关;服务业部门的结构变动与失业率及失业率波动显著负相关;总体产业的结构变动造成失业率上升。产业多样化能显著降低失业率及波动;制造业的专业化与失业率显著正相关,建筑业和批发零售业与失业率显著负相关。另外,劳动力受教育水平和非公有经济比重与失业率以及失业率波动显著负相关。

This paper uses the 1997-2006 provincial industrial and employment data to examine the impact of industrial structure change and diversity on the employment. The findings indicate that the structure changes of the manufacturing sector raise unemployment rate ,but the structure changes of the services sector lower unemployment rate. The structure changes of the whole industry raise unemployment rate. Industrial diversity is negatively related to unemployment rate. The specialization of manufacture industry is positively related to unemployment rate,while the specialization of construction and wholesale and retail industries are negatively related to unemployment rate. In addition ,the growth of economy,the average education of labor force and the size of private sector are negatively related to unemployment rate.