基于动态损伤及优化AR模型的电子器件寿命预测方法研究

Research on Life Prognosis Method for Electronics Based on Dynamic Damage and Optimization AR Model

电子器件所承受的各种环境应力和工作应力的时间历程是其性能衰退或发生故障的直接外因。通过分析电子器件单点损伤直接寿命预测方法存在的不足,以器件的动态损伤信息为基础,结合器件的单点损伤递推预测模型,提出了基于优化自回归(AR)模型的电子器件寿命预测方法,并详细介绍了该方法的技术流程和具体算法。并以某型导弹车电控元件功率器件为研究对象对提出的方法进行了案例验证。结果表明:该方法既能考虑电子器件退化的历史变化趋势,又能考虑应力突变带来的预测影响。

It has been already realized that the main external factor of electronics degradation or deviation from an expected normal condition is the time stress such as vibration,temperature,humidity etc.For the existent deficiency of a direct lift prognosis method based on single point damage information,a new life prognosis method was proposed by the recursive life prognosis model and the optimization auto-regression model,the life prognosis process and the specific algorithm were given in detail.Taking the power MOSFET of a certain type of missile launching vehicle as an example,the proposed method was demonstrated.The results show that the real degradation trend and the influence of abrupt life changing induced with accident on life prgnosis are taken into account by the method.