由汶川地震引发对中国地震预报的方法学反思

Thinking China's Earthquake Forecast on Methodology due to "Wenchuan Earthquake"

从2008-05-12四川汶川地震出发,对地震预报预防进行深刻的反思科学方法,针对Geller等人1997年在科学杂志(Science)提出的地震不可预报等论点,就地震是否可以预报展开了据实的比较性探讨分析;通过跨学科的论证和说理,提出了在中国地震预报继承和创新中,坚持科学发展,"群专结合"的正确方向。

A brief reflection of the Wenehuan Earthquake in May, 2008 and reasoning on the predictability of earthquakes are conducted in this paper. An objective and comparative discussion and analysis is brought forward based on the argument that ＂earthquakes cannot be predicted＂, presented in Science by C, eller etc. in 1997. Through an interdisciplinary reasoning and discussion, the authors of this paper believe that the scientific development direction as well as ＂working combined experts with public participation＂ principle should be firmly promoted in an earthquake prediction.