工程中的徐变外部不确定性分析及应用

Analysis and Application of Creep External Uncertainty in Practice

根据施工现场实测资料的统计分析结果,利用拉丁超立方抽样法,分析了我国现行规范规定的徐变模式在工程应用中的外部不确定性和徐变计算参数之间的相对重要性。结果表明,在进行徐变外部不确定性分析时,不能忽略加载龄期变异的影响;在实际工程中,由徐变外部不确定性产生的预测误差将会超过10%。在不确定研究结果的基础上,通过引入徐变预测不确定因子作为衡量徐变预测不确定性的指标,提出一种用徐变预测不确定因子的均值和置信限为代表值分析结构不确定性的方法。数值算例证明,该方法是一种可行的高效的分析方法。

Based on the measured data from the construction site, the prediction uncertainty of the CEB-FIP MC90 due to the variation of the calculation parameters （i. e. the external uncertainty） and their sensitivity are analyzed with the help of statistical method and Latin Hypercube sampling method. Three conclusions can be deduced from the analysis. Those are a）the external uncertainty and its decreasing rate of the CEBFIP MC90 reduce with the time increasing, b） the creep coefficient increases with the increasing temperature while decreases with the increase of other calculation parameters, c）in accordance with the degrees of effect to the creep uncertainty, the first three calculation parameters are relative humidity, loading age and temperature, if the variation of the loading age is not taken into acount, the uncertainty of the creep pridection will be underestimated. Also, a method to analyze the uncertainty of the bridge structure due to the creep prediction uncertainty is proposed after the creep uncertain factor, which is the standard of the uncertainty of the creep, is introduced. An exmaple is analyzed in this paper using the random sampling method and the method presented in this paper. Through drawing a comparison between the results from different methods, the method presented in this paper appears to be feasible and efficient.