老龄化对中国通货膨胀与失业率关系的影响

The Influence of Aging on the Relationship between Inflation Rate and Unemployment Rate in China

本文构建了一个理论模型,检验人口结构变化对通货膨胀率与失业率之间关系的影响,并利用中国的面板数据进行了实证检验。无论理论模型还是回归分析都表明,随着人口老龄化,通货膨胀与失业率的可替代性降低。一个不断老龄化的社会,对通货膨胀的容忍度在降低,通货膨胀与失业率之间的替代关系在发生变化,这将影响央行面对通货膨胀与失业率问题时的抉择。

We build a new macro-economic model by adding aging variable to test the effect of aging variable on the inflation-unemployment relationship, using panel data in China to do empirical test. Both the model and regression analysis show that as the population age, the inflation-unemployment curve will flatten and the tolerance against inflation will descend. That will affect the decision-making issues between inflation and unemployment for central banks.