摘要
本文针对近年来中国股票市场泡沫问题和房地产市场的泡沫问题这两个市场的具体情况,分别采用简化的F-O模型测度中国股票市场的泡沫度和成本加成定价模型测度房地产市场的泡沫度,得出1999-2007年我国这两个市场近9年来的月度泡沫估计值;通过对两个市场的泡沫度的对比分析,我们发现股票市场的泡沫度比房地产市场的波动更大;房地产市场泡沫并不是导致股票市场泡沫的原因;而股票市场泡沫却是房地产市场泡沫产生的原因。
In view of the real situation of stock market and real estate market in recent years, the paper measures bubble levels of stock market and real estate market, respectively by simplified F-O model and cost-plus pricing model, and obtains the monthly estimated bub- ble levels of these two markets from 1999 to 2007. Through a comparative analysis of bubble levels of these two markets, the fluctuation of bubble level on stock market is larger than the fluctuation of bubble level on real estate market. The bubble of real estate market doesn＇t lead to the bubble of stock market, but the bubble of stock market makes important contri- bution to the generation of the bubble of real estate market.
出处
《上海财经大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第1期64-71,共8页
Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
基金
广东省教育厅课题"中国证券市场噪声效应的实证分析"(Z03041)的研究成果之一
