水库实施调度及风险决策

Reservoirs real operation and risk decision making

本文结合黄河干流水库调度，并在调度规则的基础上，对采用的规则在实施运用中的径流用水预报值；误差修正；风险决策等几个关键问题进行了研究．算例表明，文中提出的思路和方法对完善水库调度理论和应用研究具有十分重要的意义．

Abstract According to the operation of the reservoirs in the main stream of the Yellow River, this paper studied some key problems including the consideration and adoption of run off and water supply forecasting values, error revising, risk decisioin making etc., based on the operating rules obtained. The practice example shows that the proposed method has very important significance.