我国宏观调控利率政策工具滞后有效性计量检验

The Econometric Test of the Effectiveness behind the Interest Rate Policy Tools in the Context of China's Macro-control

从2008年7月份以来,经济过热势头早已得到抑制,尤其是到11月份,经济下滑迹象明显,物价持续回落,新的一轮经济弱势下行、通货紧缩时代即将到来。诚然,经济由去年的过热到今年的趋冷,与美国次级贷款危机所导致的世界范围内的经济危机有关,但国家先前的宏观调控措施更为重要。运用单位根检验、协整检验,选取2005年8月～2008年6月中国相关经济月度数据,对汇率改革以来的利率对汇率的影响进行了分析,发现,在目前我国资本项目没有完全开放条件下,汇率对利率表现不敏感。这也许是国家短期内频频动用利率金融工具进行宏观调控,但短期内效果却不甚理想的原因。但从目前的经济走向来看,又足以说明利率政策是有效的,表现出利率政策工具在宏观调控效果上的滞后性。

Since July 2008, the momentum of economic overheating has long been controlled, in Particular, in November 2008, Signs of economic downturn is apparent; consumer price index is down, a new round of weak economic downlink, the times of deflation are at hand. It is true that the changes is related to the worldwide economic crisis caused by the United States＇ sub-loaus crisis, But the previous country＇s macro-control measures is more important. In this paper, the relation of the exchange rates and the interest rates has been analyzed with the methods of integration and cointegration test in terms of the monthly economic data from August 2005 to June 2008. It is found that the exchange rate is not sensitive to the interest rate under the conditions that the capital account in China has not been completely open to the world. This may be the reason of the non-effectiveness of the monetary policy tools in the context of China＇s macro-control in short-term.However, the current economic trend illustrates the effectiveness of interest rate policy, showing the effectiveness behind the macro-control.