生育和经济社会的协调发展

The Coordination between Fertility Changes and Socioeconomic Development

有三个相关的生育问题需要作些深入研究,第一个是究竟我国当前生育是在什么水平?第二个是假如总和生育率的水平是1.8,这个水平能在今后三十年保持不变吗?第三个是假如未来三十年总和生育率过高或过低于1.8是不是会不利于人口与经济社会的协调发展?第一个问题应该可以用现有的但没有发表的生育数据作更深入分析和举办一次追踪调查去了解妇女生育的历史,追踪同样样本妇女的妊娠结果(活产、死产、流产)和出生儿童的性别。第二个问题的答案是否定的,因为世界上还没有一个国家能够不鼓励生育而能保持正在下降的出生水平。我国社会具备了生育水平继续下降的一切条件,特别是小家庭社会制度的普及更在促进生育水平下降。第三个问题用人口预测的方法比较未来不同生育水平对人口发展的影响,显示出不同预测的人口总数和年龄结构相差不大,无法得出过高和过低于1.8生育水平的未来人口会不利于人口与经济社会的协调发展的结论。

Three related fertility questions need more in - depth studies. The first is what the actual fertility level of our country is？ The second is if the level is 1.8 in term of the total fertility rate, can this level be maintained for the next 30 years？ The third is does it affect the growth of population and the socioeconomic development in a coordinated way if the total fertility rate is maintaining at a level either higher or lower than 1.8 for the next thirty years？ There is no answer for the first question but we should know the answer from either the existing data or a follow - up survey. The answers to the second and the third questions seem to be both negative.