基于突变论的建筑突发事件研究

Study on the unexpected catastrophes at the construction sites based on the catastrophe probability theory

针对建筑突发事件的特点,提出利用突变论描述建筑突发事件,并将研究结果用于辅助处理突发事件决策。该方法根据7种基本的突变模型,用于描述大部分建筑内的突发事件。通过研究突变模型得出建筑内突发事件的特点和规律,并以此制定相应的决策策略。通过数学方法求解7种突变方程,将解的结果运用到突发事件的实际处理中,并将突发事件和决策作为案例存储在案例库中,遇到相似的突发事件时可以直接调用。结合实践表明,该方法对解决建筑突发事件效果显著。

In recent years, frequent occurrence of unexpected catastrophes on the construction sites has caught lots of attention in the world. This paper aims at presenting our study on how to predict and prevent such events by bringing about a new method for describing such events in the actual civil engineering practice based on the Study of the catastrophe theory. As is known, catastrophe theory is a new mathematics theory developed forty years ago in the mathematics circle, which focuses on the study of disperse phenomena. The method developed by us intends to use the form of mathematical models to describe and analyze the characteristics of such happenings. For our study convenience, we suggest using seven basic models to describe most of such events on the construction sites, including fold-type catastrophe, cusp-like catastrophe, swallow-tail catastrophe, butterfly-type catastrophe, hyperbolic umbilic, elliptic umbilic and parabolic umbilic ones. Through analyzing the above seven types of models, we have made clear the specific characteristics and regularities of Such events and worked out effective ways to solve such events with the seven catastrophe models turning in mathematical formulas. Putting it more specifically, such catastrophes and solutions can be recorded and computer-mathematically stored up in the form of a case study in the library. Therefore, in case of similar unexpected events, it would be possible to use them as prior policy in dealing with the similar problems so as to increase the capacity of human beings to avoid such catastrophes. However, preliminary trial applications of our method show that our method can be of great help to analyze and solve such unexpected events. Moreover, the method has increased the confidence for human beings to decide how to solve such events through human-computer interaction to solve such events by avoiding or reducing disastrous casualties and material losses.