基于STR模型的金融机构信贷资金投放与中国经济增长的实证研究

Empirical Study On the Investment of Credit Funds of Financial Institutions and China's Economic Growth Based on STR Model

以往对于金融机构信贷资金投放与经济增长关系的研究以线性回归为主,忽略了信贷资金投放与经济增长的函数关系是否一成不变、信贷投放对经济增长的影响是否存在对称性等问题。本文以非线性STR模型技术来分析两者的关系,通过各种假设检验后选择ESTR模型进行回归分析,得到了信贷资金投放与中国经济增长之间的非线性函数。研究结果表明:存在从金融机构信贷资金投放到经济增长的单向Granger因果关系;金融机构信贷资金投放与经济增长的函数关系随着资金投放数额的不同而不同;金融机构信贷资金投放对我国经济增长的影响具有非对称性。

In the past, linear regression method was primarily used to study the relationship between credit funds, which is invested by financial institutions, and economic growth. But such issues are ignored as whether relations between the two are fixed and whether the effect of the investment of credit funds on the increase of economy is symmetric. In this paper, we use non-linear STR model to analyze the relationship between the two, choose the ESTR model to make regression analysis after a variety of hypothesis testing, then got the non-linear relationship between GDP to GDP （-1）, GDP （-2） and credit funds. The results of shows that ： there are one-way Granger causality from credit funds of financial institutions to China＇s economic growth, the function relationship between the two will be changed as credit funds alter, the impact of financial institutions＇ credit funds on China＇s economic growth are asymmetrical.