公众学习、预期引导与货币政策的有效性

Public Learning,Expectations Guiding and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

经济的动态变化,人们对宏观经济运行的有限认知,决定了人们处于一种动态学习过程之中。并且,经济主体不仅是根据某种计量方法或经验自我学习,有时更多的也是通过人们之间的信息传播相互学习。在这种互相学习和影响的过程当中,由于中央银行在宏观调控中的重要地位,使得中央银行对公众的预期和决策能够起到举足轻重的作用。从中央银行货币政策的实践来看,货币政策效应的发挥已越来越借助于货币政策的预期引导功能。当前,在防止我国经济增长由偏快转为过热、防止价格由结构性上涨演变为明显通货膨胀的大背景下,稳定和引导公众的通胀预期对于货币政策具有非常重要的意义。

The rational expectations approach presupposes that economic agents have full knowledge about the economy. But it is more natural to assume that the agents face many limitations on knowledge about the economy. This sight is the starting point of public learning approach to modeling expectations formation. And in reality, learning comes not only from statistical re~＇ession of any kind, but also from information passed from person to person. In the course of judgment travel from person to person, the central bank can exert tremendous influence upon public expectation due to its key role in maeroeconomic regulation. So it appears that the effect of monetary policy depends greatly on expectation guiding.