金融危机的逻辑及其社会后果

The Logic of the Financial Crisis and Its Social Consequences

目前中国的经济问题,从表面看来,是在美国金融危机冲击的背景下发生的,但从根本上来说,是一场从生活必需品时代向耐用消费品时代转型转不过去而形成的传统的生产过剩危机。原发于美国的金融危机只是引发并加速了正在酝酿中的中国的生产过剩危机。因此,美国的问题不一定是中国的问题。中国目前所面临的问题更具有传统的生产过剩危机的特点。这是我们分析中国在这次危机中一些重要问题的前提,而对经济危机产生的社会后果的讨论,也必须建立在这一前提的基础之上。中国所面临的问题主要是表现在实体经济的层面及其该问题向社会层面的传导。在这种情况下,我们面临的重要任务是,利用经济危机的机会,真正实现发展方式的转变,为从生活必需品时代顺利转型到耐用消费品时代创造条件;同时进行社会安全网络的建设,形成可以隔绝或减缓经济危机向社会层面传导的过滤机制。

China’s current economic problem has developed in the context of America’s financial crisis, but it is basically a traditional economic crisis of overproduction resulting from the difficulty with the transition from the time for living necessities to the time for durable goods. The financial crisis originated from the U.S. has just triggered a breeding crisis of overproduction in China; reasonably, the problem of America is not necessarily the same as the problem of China. What China is facing now is characterized of a traditional economic crisis of overproduction, which is the prerequisite for analyzing China’s problems and discussing the social consequences of this economic crisis. China’s problems mainly reflect the tangible economy and their extending effects on society. In this condition, the important task for us is to utilize the current economic crisis to create conditions for a successful transition from the time for living necessities to the time for durable goods so that a real transformation of developing modes is accomplished. At the same time, China should construct its social security network as a filtration mechanism to either insolate or slow down the effects of an economic crisis on society.