中国通货膨胀周期回顾与宏观政策启示

Inflation Cycles and Implications for Macro Policy in China:30 Years Experience

本文对1978-2008年间中国的通货膨胀动态路径进行周期性划分,阐明了各个周期内通货膨胀的成因与特点,并对2008年以后中国宏观政策的取向进行评述,提出在新形势下我国宏观政策调控的策略,应该从偏重于"抑制通胀"转变为"抑制通胀与防止衰退"并重,在通货膨胀与经济增长的权重搭配上,重新探索政策调控的最优组合点,增强宏观调控的灵活性与预见性。

This paper characterizes China inflation cycles over 1978-2008. The paper discusses driving factors and properties of inflation dynamics within each cycle and provides comments on the future adjustment of macro policy after 2008. The paper proposes that the advisable strategy of macro policy adjustment in China is to shift the inflation-control policy to both controlling inflation and mitigating recession, explore the optimal combination between inflation and economic growth, and reinforce policy flexibility and predictability.