基于灰关联模型的旅游产业关联分析——以宜宾市兴文县为例

A Correlation Analysis of Tourism Based on Gray Theory ——By the Example of Xingwen County

旅游业作为国民经济的一部分,带动了整个区域经济的全面发展,并促进了产业结构的优化和调整。以兴文县近7年国民经济主要产业的产值变化来分析旅游产业与其他产业关联效应,运用灰色关联模型对旅游业与农业、工业、交通运输、批发零售业、邮电通讯等产业间的关联度进行测算,得出相关产业与旅游业的关联系数和关联度。关联度由大到小依次是:住宿餐饮业>批发零售业>农林牧渔业>邮电通讯业>交通运输业>工业。结合兴文县旅游相关产业的实际发展情况,提出产业发展的对策和措施,以期能有助于兴文旅游业自身的快速、协调、高效运行。

Tourist industry has already become an important part of national economy. It brings about a great advance in regional economy and promotes the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure. Exemplified by Xingwen County tourist industry, this paper makes an approach to the correlation of tourist industry with other industries based on changes in the major national industrial output value in the past seven years, estimating correlation degrees of the tourist industry with agriculture, industry, transport, wholesale and retail trade, postal and telecommunication industries by the use of the gray model. The results indicate that the corresponding correlation degrees tourist industry with catering accommodation, wholesale and retail, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, posts and telecommunications industry, transport and industry are 0.691, 0.617, 0.616, 0.610, 0.602 and 0.537, respectively. The some policies and measures for industrial development of Xingwen County in order to the development of tourism are put forward.