河北省COD排放环境学习曲线及减排潜力研究

Environmental Learning Curve and Emission Reduction Potential of COD in Hebei Province

基于2006年河北省11个设区市COD排放量,对人均COD排放量和万元GDP COD排放量的区域分布格局及其成因进行了定量分析;同时,基于1995-2006年COD排放量和人均GDP,建立了河北省万元GDP COD排放量随人均GDP变化的环境学习曲线,分析了1995-2006年COD排放环境负荷变化及减排潜力,对《河北省国民经济和社会发展第十一五个五年规划纲要》确定的削减15%目标的可达性进行了预测。结果表明:在河北省国民经济和社会发展指标条件下,目标值和预测值的误差小于1%,能够实现COD削减的约束性指标。

Based on COD emissions data of 2006, this paper is an attempt to quantitatively analyze the area distribution patterns of two indite （COD emission per capita and COD emissions per unit production value） as well as their causes. Meanwhile, on the basis of COD emissions and economic development data from 1995 to 2006, environmental learning curve of COD emission per ten-thousand Yuan production value and GDP per capita are established. According to the environmental learning curve of COD emission, variation of environmental load and emission reducing potential of COD in every period from1995 to 2006 are analyzed. It also predicts the feasibility of the goal to reduce 15 percent set by the eleventh Five-year plan of national economy and social development in Hebei Province. Results show that according to the economic and social development indicators of Hebei Province , the error between the targeted value and the predicted value is less than 1 percent. So the restrained goal of cutting down COD can be realized.