非均衡经济增长条件下耕地保有量预测模型的探讨——以毕节地区为例

Discussion on the Prediction Model of Total Farmland under the Condition of the Inequilibrium Economic Growth

[目的]结合毕节地区土地利用现状和规划实践,探讨耕地保有量需求预测方法。[方法]多元回归预测法、时间序列预测法。[结果]应用毕节地区耕地综合生产能力、人口发展、耕地面积变化、固定资产投资等数据,建立了耕地保有量需求预测模型,并通过评价与解释确定最优模型作为毕节地区耕地保有量预测方案。[结论]将预测方案与贵州省宏观调控下达给毕节地区规划"影子指标"对照,并将规划"影子指标"分解到其所辖的8个县市,实现了预测方案与规划"影子指标"的衔接,为毕节地区土地利用总体规划编制工作提供了科学依据。

[ Objective ] Combining the current land-use with the planning practice of Bijie area, this paper probed into the prediction method of total farmland demand. [ Method] Multiple regression prediction method, time series prediction method. [ Result] Application with the data of comprehensive production capacity, population development, changes of arable land, investment in the fixed assets and so on, the text established the prediction models of total farmland demand, and determined the optimal model as the prediction proposal of total farmland in Bijie area through evaluation and explanation. [ Conclusion] Compared the prediction proposal with the ＂shadow index＂ of the Bijie area which was instructed by the macro-control of Guizhou Province. Then the paper decomposed the ＂shadow index＂ into eight towns administered, and realized the combination of the prediction proposal and the ＂shadow index＂ , also it provided scientific basis for preparing the overall plan of landuse in Bijie area.