三峡库区农业气候生产潜力评价

Evaluation of the Climate Production Potential of Agriculture in Three Gorges Reservoir Area

选用三峡库区33个台站1961-2007年气象资料,利用“作物生长动态统计”模型方法,对三峡库区气候生产潜力的状况和改善气候条件所能获得的增产效益进行了评价。结果表明：三峡库区年平均温度具有西北高、东南低的分布特征,年降水量的分布与温度分布相反;而年日照时数的分布特点是,库区东北部日照时数较多,库区西南部日照时数较少。库区光合生产潜力分布基本与日照时数分布比较一致,都是东北高-西南低;受温度和水分条件的影响,三峡库区光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力都是东北高-东南低的分布型。三峡库区平均的水稻、玉米和冬小麦光合生产潜力分别为23 268、18 447和11 194 kg/hm^2;光温生产潜力分别为19 333、16 689和9 068kg/hm^2,而气候生产潜力分别为12 810、11 548和5 423 kg/hm^2。三峡库区生产潜力的分布空间差异都较大,玉米差异最小在29.7%-52.3%,水稻在23.4%-89.6%,冬小麦最大在49.8%-92.9%。通过改善三峡库区热量条件,水稻可以获得大约20%的增产,玉米大约10%,冬小麦在10%-40%;而改善水分条件所能获得的增产率则是冬小麦最大,水稻次之,玉米最小。

Based on the meteorological data from 1961 to 2007, the conditions of climate production potential and the increasing effectiveness available by improving the climatic eonditions in Three Gorges Reservoir using the dynamic statistic model of crop growth has been analyzed. The results showed that the distribution of the annual temperature in Three Gorges Reservoir was higher in northwest than southeast, but the distribution of the annual precipitation was opposite to the distribution of the annual temperature, then the distribution of the annual sunshine time was more in northeast than southwest. The distribution characteristics of photosynthetic production potential were as same as the distribution of the annual sunshine time basically. Due to the impact of temperature and moisture, light - temperature production potential and climate production potential in Three Gorges Reservoir were higher in northeast than southeast. Photosynthetic production potential of rice, corn and winter wheat in Three Gorges Reservoir Area were 23 268 kg/hm^2 , 18 447 kg/hm^2 and 11 194 kg/hm^2 , respectively. Light-temperature pro- duction potential of rice, corn and winter wheat were 19 333 kg/hm^2 , 16 689 kg/hm^2 and 9 068 kg/hm^2 , respectively. And climate produetion potential of rice, corn and winter wheat were 12 810 kg/hm^2 , 11 548kg/hm^2 and 5 423 kg/hm^2 , respectively. The differences of the distribution of production potential in Three Gorges reservoir area were great, the difference of corn in space was the smallest from 29.7% to 52.3% , and the difference of rice in spaee was 23.4% to 89.6% , and the difference of winter wheat in space was the largest from 49.8% to 92.9%. By improving heat transfer the output of rice would increase 20% approximately, the corn would increase about 10% , and winter wheat would increase by 10% -40%. By improving irrigation the production rate of winter wheat would increase most, the production rate of rice would take the second place, and the production rate of corn would be the least.