摘要
本文按照活动地块边界带和地震区的划分方案,使用Mapsis软件选取了东北地震区1900年以来Ms4.7级以上地震资料,这样得到的地震资料可能具有一个完整的地质系统性。使用数学中19阶多项式模型,对地震资料进行最佳逼近拟合,并递推未来1～2年时间尺度预测,模型中的参数用最小二乘法求取,引用了一种数学方法来描述东北地震区的地震趋势规律。
In the paper, according to the structure devision result of active block boundany and seismic area, using MAPSIS software, the author selects the earthquake Ms ≥4.7 data of Northeast China area. This data may have the characteristic of one geology unit. Using the 19-order non-linear math polynomial which coefficent parameters can be obtained by method of least square ; The author made optimum approaches to data by fitting, and made a prediction of seismic tendency in 1-2 year＇s time. This provides a mathematical model prediction method to describe the rule of seismic tendency in Northeast China area
出处
《东北地震研究》
2008年第3期17-20,共4页
Seismological Research of Northeast China
关键词
活动地块
地震区
地震趋势
数学建模
active tectonic block
seismic area
seismic tendency
math modeling
