地温‘流’泛导的溃变与地震预报

Panderivative Blown-Up of Ground Temperature and Predicting Earthquake

本文在泛系的广义转化、优化和泛导变变关系中的非线性动力系统的溃变理论［１，２］的启发下，利用［２］的方法显化了非线性热传导方程的溃变与实际的地温‘流’演变类似·为此，作者结合１９７６年唐山大地震进行了相应的模拟·结果表明：地震前后的地温‘流’溃变可以用于地震预报，对唐山大地震约有５个月的预见期·若地温‘流’体现地壳运动的不可积的泛导方程，在信息充分的条件下，显化其溃变机理。

According to the blown-up theory (described in references ) for nonlinear dynamic system on the relationship of general pansystem transformation,optimsation and panderivative blown_up,by means of blown_up theory,we demonstrate that the blown_up of nonlinear heat conductive equation is similar to the evolution of observational ground temperature `flow' in this paper. And a successful simulation of Tang Shan Earthquake in 1976 has been given. The result of simulation indicates that the blown_up of ground temperature `flow' around earthquake can be applied to predict earthquake. As for Tang Shan Earthquake,the predicting time is about five months. If ground temperature `flow' that embodies the earth's crust satisfies the unintegral panderivative equation,we can demonstrate its mechanism and forecast earthquake with enough information.