摘要
基于某老城区代表性路段几何特征和交通流特征的调查数据及相应交通事故资料,运用灰色关联分析理论确定影响因素与道路交通事故率的绝对和相对关联度,提出道路改善措施优先顺序;为验证上述分析的正确性,运用Pearson相关分析和多元逐步回归分析,建立了事故率与高相关因素之间的简单多元回归模型,利用该模型预测改善后道路安全水平。
Based on the survey data and grey relational analysis of traffic accident and affecting factors, the precedence of reconstruction measures of roads in old city zone was proposed. Then, the practical regression models of accident rate and the affecting factors were developed by Pearson correlation analysis and multiple step-wise regression analysis. The model was used to forecast accident rate of improved roads.
出处
《交通信息与安全》
2009年第1期98-100,93,共4页
Journal of Transport Information and Safety
基金
"十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(批准号:2006BAJ18B03)资助
关键词
老城区
道路改善
回归模型
灰色关联分析
old city zone
road improvement
regression model
grey relational analysis
