多因子预测模型在连续梁桥中的应用

A multifactor forecasting model for continuous beam bridges

为解决在连续梁桥施工过程中,对施工过程中的挠度和应力进行预测和控制这一问题。建立SCGMmv(1,h)是基于均值生成时序的多因子预测模型。将SCGMmv(1,h)预测模型与具体工程相结合,利用挠度与应力的相互关联,预测挠度值与应力值,并与GM(1,1)预测模型的预测值进行对比。实例结果表明,SCGMmv(1,h)多因子预测模型在连续梁桥施工过程中,对挠度与应力的预测是可行有效的。

It is necessary to predict and control deflection and stress in continuous beam bridge construction. SCGMmv （1, h） is a multifactor forecasting model for a time series based on the mean values. For a specific project, by using the association between deflection and stress, the SCGMmv （], h） forecasting model is employed to obtain forecast values of deflection and stress, which are compared with the forecast values of the GM （1,1） prediction model. The results show that the SCGMmv （1, h） multifactor forecasting model is feasible and effective for deflection and stress prediction in continuous beam bridge construction.