汇率变动对我国就业和工资影响的实证研究——基于三产业视角的分析

An Empirical Study on the Effects of Currency Exchange Rate to the Employment and the Wages in China——Analyses Based on Perspectives of Three Industries

汇率、就业和工资三者有着密切联系。从三大产业层面出发，在特定假定条件下，以中国1980～2006年度的相关数据为基础，经过分析得出这些变量存在长期均衡关系的结论。短期之内人民币升值对就业有负面影响，对工资有正面影响。但从长期考虑，人民币对第一、第二产业具有促进就业的影响，也间接证实我国第一、第二产业开放程度不高的假定。最后提出相关政策建议，应避免汇率的大幅度变动。

Exchange rate, employment, wage are closely related. From analyses on the annual data of real effective exchange rate,numbers of employees and wage index in the three industries from the year 1980 to 2006,we come to the conclusion that there is a long-run cointegration among the variables mentioned above. This paper finds out the following results：as the deepening of reform and opening to the outside, the appreciation of RMB will exert negative impact on employment as it will raise the wage. However,the effect will be weak. The slight appreciation will neither bring about large fluctuation to employment nor to the wage level. Therefore, this paper suggests some policies to the government.