诗运与时运——二十一世纪诗坛预测

The Destiny of Chinese Poetry:A Prospect of Chinese Poetry in the 21st Century

孔夫子考察子贡,看其可不可与言诗,有无资格与言诗,其中有个条件就是,告诸往能否知来者。可见,所谓知来者,亦即预测,实际上就是对于诸往的一种回顾与反省。主要看,能否从中吸取点什么。故此,对于本文,亦当只作一般文章看待。全文三个部分:第一部分,关于诗词读本的出版状况以及诗界、词界领袖人物的预测;第二部分,中国诗坛"双向流动"现象——新体白话诗与旧体格律诗的生死搏斗;第三部分,总结经验,预示未来。

This paper is divided into three parts： the first part is about the publishment of Chinese poetry and a prediction of leaders in poetic circles; the second about the struggle between free verse in the vernacular and metrical poetry; the third a summary of the past experience and a prediction of the future verse writing.