2010和2020年中国石油可供预测分析

Prediction analysis of Chinese recoverable oil in 2010 and 2020

根据中国石油资源现状及其开发利用程度,运用回归分析预测模型、HCZ模型、Hubbert模型和翁氏模型进行定量分析,并结合定性分析得出,到2010年和2020年时,中国石油可采储量分别为39.87～45.17亿t和54.37～64.57亿t,扣除开采消耗的可供储量,原油生产能力可保持在1.56～1.85亿t。

According to present situation of Chinese oil resource and its development and utilization level, utilizes the quantitative analysis models of Regression Analysis, HCZ, Hubbert and Weng＇s, and combines with the qualitative analysis. The result shows Chinese coverable oil will be 39.87-45.17 billion tons and 54. 37-64. 57 billion tons in 2010 and 2020, the production capacity of crude oil will remain at 1.56-1.85 billion tons after discounting the effect of exploitation and consumption.