复杂空间接触模式下传染病蔓延模拟建模

Complex spatial contact pattern simulation of the spread of infectious diseases

针对现代社会越来越复杂的交互行为,提出了一种离散形式的空间分区模型预测传染病蔓延。该模型考虑了现代社会个体之间复杂的空间接触模式,以及真实情况下普遍存在的人群异质性和分布异质性。基于该模型在地理信息系统环境中建立了传染病蔓延的可视化模拟程序。模拟结果表明,该模型能较真实地模拟现实环境下传染病的蔓延过程,可为公共卫生应急中传染病疫情事件的预测预警和应急处置提供决策支持。

Increasingly complex interactions in modern societies are resulting in more complex infection disease spread scenarios. This paper presents a discrete spatial patch model for simulating the complete spread of infectious diseases. The model describes the complex spatial contact patterns among individuals and the effects of population and distribution heterogeneities. A simulation program developed in a geographic information systems （GIS） environment shows typical local and global patterns of contagion. Thus the model accurately depicts the spread of infectious diseases in the real world. This model can facilitate prevention and control of contagious health emergencies by providing decision makers with useful clues.