基于土地利用变化的城市规划环境影响评价

Environmental impact assessment of land use changes for urban development planning

城市规划的环境影响具有显著的不确定性,难以定量评价。该文将社会经济活动落实到空间网格上,以土地利用变化表征城市规划的实施,集成情景分析和Monte Carlo技术来模拟土地利用变化,并结合不确定性分析技术构建了城市规划环境影响的定量评价方法。对大连市发展规划的地表水环境影响评价进行了方法应用,识别了规划年主要河流的环境风险、环境压力、极端环境影响、关键污染物和关键污染源。该方法可以系统识别城市规划环境影响的不确定性并定量评价其影响,为科学规划提供决策支持。

The environmental impacts of urban plans are difficult to assess quantitatively because of the significant uncertainties. This paper divides the social economic activities into spatial grids, with land use changes then used to represent implementation of the urban development plan. Scenario analyses and the Monte Carlo technology are integrated to simulate the effects of the land use changes. An uncertainty analysis is then used to quantitatively assess the environmental impacts of the urban development plan. The methodology is illustrated by a case study of the surface water environmental impact assessment for the Dalian urban development plan. The study identifies the environmental risk to the main river, the environmental pressure, the extreme environmental impact, the critical pollutants, and the critical sources during the planning year. The methodology systematically identifies environmental impact uncertainties in urban development plans and quantitatively assesses the environmental impacts to give decision support for scientific planning.