农户种植能源作物甜高粱的决策模型

Decision-making model for understanding farmers' cultivation of sweet sorghum for energy use

行为理论已成功地应用于国外农户技术采用行为研究,但在国内同类研究中还未得到应用。该文借助研究国内农户种植能源作物甜高粱决策行为的时机,综合运用计划行为理论、社会认知理论、创新扩散理论和感知风险理论等国外行为理论的概念与模型,构建了农户决策模型,并在问卷访谈农户的数据基础上运用结构方程模型方法进行实证研究。结果表明,模型对于态度和行为意向的解释力都超过80%;模型的主要自变量是环境变量、强制型主观规范和相对优势。

Behavio;cal theories have been successfully used to predict technology adoption by famers in other countries, but have rarely been applied domestically. The theory of planned behavior, theory of innovation diffusion, theory of perceived risk, and social cognition theory were ＂hybridized＂ to construct a decision-making model to understand domestic farmers＇ cultivation of sweet sorghum for energy use. Scales were designed on the theoretical model. Investigations of such farmers were used to build a structural equation modeling approach to test the model. The results show that three of the five tested factors （environmental factor, forcible subjective norm, and relative advantage） explain more than 80% of the variation in the farmers＇ attitude and behavioral intentions.