中国汽车市场2008—2010年波动走势分析

Analysis on Fluctuation Trend of China’s Auto Market from 2008 to 2010

为研究2008—2010年中国汽车市场发展趋势,给汽车行业发展战略和经营决策提供较可靠的参考依据,文章采用了新的研究方法体系——"车市波动分析法"。设定了1个系数(扩张系数)和2种效应(扩张效应和收缩效应),用波动图形和数据来判定汽车市场的走势。指出中国汽车市场是按波动规律发展的,21世纪汽车市场进入第5次波动期;2008年汽车市场进入本轮波动收缩期(第5次收缩期);2009年上半年进入"谷底",下半年到2010年平稳回升,而后进入更高水平的新一轮波动期。

In order to research the developing trend of China＇s auto market from 2008 to 2010,so as to provide auto industry with reliable reference in the fields of development strategy and marketing decision, this paper adopts a new researching system, that is Fluctuation Analytical Method of Auto Market. Setting one expanding coefficient and two effects （expanding effect and shrinkage effect）, this method determines the trend of auto market with the help of fluctuant graph and relevant statistics. China＇s auto market fluctuates regularly. The 5th fluctuation period happens in this 21 st century and auto market enters its 5th shrinking period in 2008. Moreover, in the first half of 2009, China＇s auto market would drop into the bottom of valley, but it would rise again reposefully in the second half of 2009 and in 2010. Then after, China＇s auto industry would experience a more extensive fluctuation period with a higher level.