我国台风灾害成因分析及灾情预估

Cause analysis and preliminary hazard estimate of typhoon disaster in China

利用1980-2004年的台风基本资料，对我国台风（包括热带气旋、热带风暴、强热带风暴、台风、强台风和超强台风）灾害的成因进行了初步分析，结果表明：台风引起的大风和降水以及登陆台风的强度和登陆点位置等都是我国台风致灾的重要因素。综合表征台风灾情的ATDI指数和台风造成的直接经济损失与台风大风、降水、登陆台风强度及移速关系密切，而房屋倒损则主要与台风引起的大风有关，农田受淹则主要取决于台风降水。在此基础上，建立了综合表征台风灾情的ATDI指数以及因台风而倒损的房屋数、受淹的农田面积和造成的直接经济损失等的预估模型。对历史样本拟合和对2005年6个台风的独立样本回报表明：模型具有较好的预估能力，对台风灾害各等级的拟合和预估误差不大于1个等级的样本约占总样本数的83％～96％（完全准确的样本在50％以上）。

Main meteorological factors for disaster caused by landfalling tropical cyclones in China are analyzed based on samples formed during 1980 - 2004. It is shown that the degree of disaster has strong relation with precipitation, gale, and landfalling intensity and position point of typhoon, et al. In detail, ATDI, an index to describe the degree of disaster caused by typhoon, and economic lost are highly correlative with gale, precipitation, landfalling intensity, and moving speed of typhoon. Damaged and collapsed houses are mainly begot by gale. And flooded farmland is mostly begot by precipitation. A statistical prediction model for disaster, including ATDI, economic loss, damaged and collapsed houses and flooded farmland caused by typhoon is developed using regression technique. The fitting results for historical and independent samples show that the prediction model performs well for 83%-96% samples with errors less than one grade.