福建农业气象灾害的产量灾损风险评估

Risk assessment of yield losses from agro-meteorological disasters in Fujian Province

针对传统的灾损评价中趋势产量和气象产量难以区分的缺点，利用福建省1981—2005年主要气象灾害面积资料，通过计算灾害造成的粮食减产量，得到各灾害相对灾损量序列，并引入信息扩散理论的模糊数学方法，构建了福建农业气象灾害产量灾损风险评估模型，进行了相应的风险评价实例分析。结果表明，福建省农业气象灾害的产量灾损风险随概率的增大而减少，气象灾害发生灾损的概率风险估计值，洪涝灾害风险大于旱灾，风雹灾害的风险大于低温冻害。干旱风险高值区出现在灾损率5％-45％，洪涝灾害出现在5％-70％，风雹灾害在5％-30％，低温冻害的风险主要集中在灾损率5％-20％。

In view of the difficulty to separate the meteorological yield from a data set of crop yield in evaluating yield losses by statistical models, a method based fuzzy mathematics was introduced in this paper to assess the risk of yield losses due to ago-meteorological disasters in Fujian Province, in which the data of area damaged by disasters in the whole province from 1981 to 2005 were mainly used to calculate the total decreased yield, then the percentage of yield losses was analyzed using the fuzzy method, and finally, a model to assess the risk of agro-meteorological disaster were developed. The results show that the largest risk for yield losses in Fujian Province comes from flood, followed by drought, typhoon/hailstone and freezing damage, and thier medium risk value ranges are 5 % - 70% , 5 % - 45 % ,5 % - 30% , and 5 % - 20%, respectively.