汇率升值、紧缩性政策与经济波动——中国经济会重蹈日本覆辙吗?

The Study of Exchange Rate Appreciation,Tight Policy and Economic Fluctuation

本文以日元升值过程中的"双盯住政策"(盯住外汇市场和盯住实际汇率)为基础,研究汇率升值压力下中国宏观经济政策操作方式。经验结果表明:短期内,提高利率紧缩经济不仅可以实现被动式升值,而且能有效控制通胀率,而主动性大幅度升值可能会陷入类似日本经历的困境。若利率政策在短期内难以达到理想效果,人民币汇率主动式小幅度升值能有效抑制通胀;长期中,"紧缩性盯住"(降低货币供给、提高利率和其他措施)并不一定会带来经济衰退。为避免"流动性陷阱","紧缩性盯住"优于日本式的"扩张性盯住"。文章最后给出了中国经济不会重蹈日本覆辙的一些政策建议。

Based on ＂double targeting policy＂ in the process of the Yen appreciation, the authors＇ analyzes the method that Chinese g.verument can use to alleviate the pressure upton RMB appreciation. The empirical results indicate that if Chinese government adopts tight monetary policy, the economy may not only realize passive appreciation, but also control inflation effectively. Otherwise, the policy of active appreciation may make the economy into trouble that Japan has experienced. In the abort term, if interest tate policy does not achieve desirable effects, active appreciation of RMB can effectively restrain inflation. In the long run, ＂contracting target＂ policy may not necessarily result in economic recession. In order to avoid liquidity trap, the ＂ contracting target＂ policy is better than ＂expanding target＂ policy, which has been adopted by Japanese government. Finally, this paper offers the advice that may avoid Chinese economy following the Japanese experience.