区域投入波动与增长的数量关系

Study on the quantitative relationships between regional input fluctuations and economic growth in China

以生产经济理论为基础,利用扩展的生产函数,构建了区域经济要素波动与区域经济增长的分析模型,并利用中国省市区的经济产出、投资、出口与消费需求数据及其派生数据,计算分析了1981～2003年区域经济要素投入波动与区域经济增长的数量关系.分析模型估计结果显示,区域投资、出口、消费需求等经济要素波动对中国区域经济增长产生显著影响,且这种影响是负面的,其中以出口波动的负面影响最大,消费需求波动的影响次之,投资波动影响最小.这在一定程度上说明,不仅增加区域投资、劳动力投入和出口可以促进区域经济增长,而且减小出口、消费需求和投资的波动也会促进区域经济增长.

Using the extended production function as the analysis framework, an analysis model of regional input factor fluctuations and regional economic growth is constructed. Applying 1981 - 2003 data on regional GDP and its components, labor inputs, exports of 25 provincial regions in China, the fluctuations of capital input （ KI）, final consumption （CI） and exports （XI） are calculated for every region as the relative standard errors around the respective best-fitted trends during the period 1981 - 2003. These fluctuation measures and the data abovementioned are then employed to estimate the analysis model, which controls the effects of capital, labor and exports, and the fluctuations. The estimation result of the analysis model shows that, on one hand, the growth rates of regional capital, labor inputs and exports have positive effects on regional economic growth in China during the period, in which the positive effect of capital input is the most among the three inputs, capital, labor, exports, the one of the labor input is the second to it, the one of exports is the least among the three; on the other hand, the fluctuations KI, CI and XI have adverse influences on regional economic growth in China during the same period, in which the deleterious effect of XI is the most among the three fluctuations, the one of CI is the second to it, the one of KI is the third to it. This research, in some sense, shows not only the increases of capital input, labor input and exports will aggrandize the regional economic outputs, but also the decreases of the fluctuations of exports, final consumption and capital input will also enhance the regional economic outputs.