基于灰色理论的舰船装备剩余寿命预测模型

Remaining Life Forecasting Model for Warship Equipment Based on Grey Theory

为方便并精确地预测舰船装备剩余寿命,利用其服役期间的实测资料,采用灰色系统理论建立了舰船装备剩余寿命灰色预测模型。并利用建立的预测模型对舰船装备剩余寿命进行预测,利用实测资料对其模拟计算结果进行残差检验,结果表明预测模型简单、精度高、计算速度快、方便实用,对在役舰船装备维修决策有一定的参考价值。

To predict the remaining life of warship equipment conveniently and accurately, using its measured data in serving and the grey theory, this paper establishes the remaining life forcasting model. And forcasts the remaining life of warship equipment in making use of established model. And making use of measured data as to its imitating calculation result carrys on remnants error inspection, The results proved that the forcast model is simple and accurate, rapid, convenient and practical. So it has some certain reference value in the actual maintenance decision.